汇率波动与爱尔兰英国的贸易，1979-1992外文原文.pdfVIP

Applied Economics. 2001, 33 , 249-26 5 Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade. 1979-1992 ELEANOR DOYLE Department of Economics. University College Cork. Cork. Ireland i Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. Edgbaston. B15 2TT, UK E-mail: e.doyle@ucc.ie This study examines how exchange-rate volatility affected Irelands exports to its most important trading partner, the United Kingdom, from 1979 to 1992. To ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, the time series properties of the series used are investigated. The analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2-digit SITC Division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differ- ently. Since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first-order GARCH process. Both real and nominal vola- tility were important determinants for over 35yo of Irish-UK trade, with positive effects predominating . This may be due to the nature of Irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk excepl to weather the storm for fear of losing market share or lacing costs of either exit, re-entry, or both . 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N A number of qualifications must be made to this view in assessing the potential effects of volatility, For example, The impact of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows is covariances between currencies matter : for a country