中国对外贸易与经济增长的关系：对反常现象的理解外文原文.pdfVIP

School of Oriental and African Studies University of London DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPERS No.143 China’s Nexus of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the Anomaly Dic Lo August 2004 economics@soas.ac.uk http://www.soas.ac.uk/departments/departmentinfo.cfm?navid=11 CHINA’S NEXUS OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: MAKING SENSE OF THE ANOMALY Dic Lo Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, U.K. Email: diclo@soas.ac.uk August 2004 I should like to thank, with the usual disclaimers, Anne Booth, Terry Byres, Thomas M.H. Chan, Cheng Yuk-shing, Sin Chor-yiu and Tsang Shu-ki for useful comments. 1 CHINA’S NEXUS OF FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: MAKING SENSE OF THE ANOMALY ABSTRACT Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China’s rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely-held perceptions on China’s nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has