汇改前后实际有效汇率对贸易影响比较分析.pdfVIP

中文摘要 汇率机制改革前，人民币实际有效汇率处于下降阶段，而 2005 年 7 月 21 日汇改后，到2008 年底，人民币升值幅度累计超过 20% 。人民币汇率变动与中 国对外贸易的关系一直以来都是国内外学者关注的热点。因此，人民币汇率变动 对中国的贸易是否有显著影响，是本文研究的主题。本文利用 2002 年 1 月到2008 年 6 月份的月度数据，以 2005 年 7 月为界限，将上面的研究时期分为两段，利 用边限协整分析方法建立模型进行比较分析后得到，汇率机制改革前后：1.出口 贸易受汇率变动影响显著，方向相反；进口贸易在改革前受汇率变动影响显著， 改革后所受影响则不显著；2.汇率变动对不同的贸易方式有着不同的影响，对一 般贸易方式的影响较大；3.对于商品结构，改革前后汇率变动的影响也有明显的 差别；4. 由多期滞后回归模型、向量自回归模型与ARDL-ECM 模型得到改革后 汇率对贸易影响呈现明显的“反 J 曲线效应”；而在改革前则得到不同的结论。 本文的分析表明，人民币汇率变动对中国的贸易的确存在一定的影响，在文章最 后本文也提出了相关建议。 关键词：人民币实际有效汇率；J 曲线效应；边限协整方法；ARDL-ECM 模型 I Abstract Before the reform of the exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate is in its downtrend. And after the reform, till the end of 2008, RMB rises more than 20%. The effect of the exchange rate to the trade attracts the scholars from aboard and domestic to discuss. Therefore, the theme of this thesis is to examine whether the exchange rate affect the trade or not. This thesis uses the datum from Jan.2002 to Jun.2008 to analyze the effect. It separates the era into to two parts and uses Bounds testing method to analyze. It concludes that, before and after the reform, 1.Exchange rate affects the export very much, and the direction is different; before the reform, exchange rate affects the obviously but not after the reform; 2.The fluctuation of the exchange rate has different effect on the way of trade and it affects the general way more obviously; 3.There is no difference of the effect of the exchange rate on the structure of the goods before and after the reform; 4.From the multi-periods regression model 、VAR model and ARDL-ECM model, this thesis concludes that it appears “anti-J curve