我国短期资本流入影响因素的实证分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着经济全球化的发展和金融一体化的深入，国际资本流动对一国经济的影 响已经超过了贸易，其中短期国际资本由于其高流动性和逐利性，对国民经济的 发展与安全的影响已经越来越大。本文在回顾国内外的经典文献的基础上，重点 对中国短期资本流入的现状、流动途径、影响因素等问题做了详细阐述，通过对 1996 年至 2006 年的统计数据的实证研究找到了影响我国短期资本流入的现实因 素。本文研究发现：我国短期资本流动的方向变化很快，呈大进大出的趋势，而 且资本进入的渠道也呈多元化。在影响因素中，利差、不动产价格、人民币汇率 变动率、负债率和证券市场收益率等因素都是影响我国国际短期资本流动的主要 因素。最后，从影响因素的角度提出利率市场化，严密监控资本和不动产市场的 资本流动和提高汇率弹性等有针对性的政策建议。本文从比较全面的角度来衡量 了我国短期资本流动的规模和影响流动的因素。 关键词：短期资本流入，利差，固定资产投资价格指数，证券市场市场收益率， 汇率变动率、负债率 I Abstract As the development of globalization and the in-depth financial integration, the influence of international capital flow to economy of a country has outperformed the influence of international trade. With high liquidity and high profit-driven attributes, short-term international capital is becoming more and more influential in the development and safety of national economy. Based on recalling the classical literature home and abroad, this dissertation focuses on status quo, path to flow and influential elements of short-term capital inflow. By researching on the statistics from 1996 to 2006 empirically, this dissertation finds out the factual elements which influence short-term capital inflow. The empirical results say: the direction of short-term capital flow in china changes very quickly with large outflows and inflows, at the same time, the path to flow in has been diversified. Interest spreads, the price of real estate, rates of change in exchange rate, yield on security market and debt rate have played in the main elements which influence short-term capital inflow. At last, from the perspective of influential elements, this dissertation propose that interest rate should be market