我国货币政策中介目标选择的研究及建议.pdfVIP

摘 要 货币政策中介目标在货币政策传导机制中处于非常关键的位置，对它的选择直接影响 货币政策的效力，因此对于各国的中央银行而言，选择合适的中介目标至关重要。我国现 在采用的是货币供应量中介目标制，但其表现不甚理想：货币供应量增长缓慢，居民固定 资产投资、居民消费增长乏力。我国应该如何选择适宜的中介目标？这是本文拟探讨的问 题。 本文首先综述了货币政策中介目标的相关理论及选择标准，然后介绍了二战后美国货 币政策中介目标的演进，并从中得到启示。在研究我国货币政策中介目标方面，首先做实 证分析，通过对我国货币供应量中介目标可控性、相关性和可测性检验，结合我国货币政 策的传导机制，证明货币供应量不适宜作为中介目标继续使用；其次，通过对利率作为我 国货币政策中介目标的相关性和可控性检验，得出结论：在我国现阶段利率中介目标制也 同样无效；最后，研究通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性，发现我国也不完全具备采用通货 膨胀目标制的经济环境。经过对比分析后，本文的结论是：在没有最优选择的情况下，我 国可以在放弃货币供应量中介目标后，暂不宣布新的中介目标，在实际操作中模拟通货膨 胀目标，使物价稳定在一个合理的范围内，相当于美国的隐性通胀目标制。 关键词 货币政策 中介目标 货币供应量 利率 通货膨胀目标制 i Abstract Intermediate targets for monetary policy is in a very critical position in the monetary policy transmission mechanism ，the choice and revision of it straightly decides evaluation on monetary policys effect, so it is the crux for central bank to make monetary policy. Our central bank chose money supply as the intermediate target, but it hasn’t reacted well: money supply increased slowly, residential investment and consumption were not increase with high effect. So what is the trend of our countrys intermediate target of monetary policy? This is the problem the thesis deals with. This thesis discusses the choosing standard and theory of intermediate targets for monetary policy, and then through investigating the choosing practice of it in America since the World War Ⅱ, the author analyzes the theoretical and practice in the choice of intermediate target. During the research of our country’s intermediate target, the thesis analyzes and evaluates the current intermediate target, it is clear that the applicability of the monetary aggregates is lower and lower; it’s not suitable to be used as our country’s intermediate target. As for the interest rates, the