人民币或者其他亚洲国家的货币升值是如何影响中国产品的出口？外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China’s Exports? Material Source: /doi/10.1111/ Author: Willem Thorbecke and Gordon Smith* Abstract China’s global current account surplus equaled 9%of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a RMB appreciation would help to rebalance China’s trade. Using a panel dataset including China’s exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% RMB appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6%.A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards US and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone. 1. Introduction China’s global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007.The Chinese government, in its 2006–10 five-year plan, acknowledged the need to rebalance its economy. Many have argued that an appreciation of the RMB would help to achieve this goal. How would an appreciation of the RMB affect China’s trade? As the IMF (2005) discusses, few studies report the responsiveness of China’s exports and imports to exchange rate changes.Mann and Plück (2005), using a dynamic panel specification and disaggregated trade flows, report that price elasticities for US imports from China are wrong-signed and that price elasticities for US exports to China are not statistically significant.Thorbecke (2006), employing Johansen MLE and dynamic OLS techniques, finds that the long-run real exchange rate coefficients for exports and imports between China and th