英国低碳经济之路的宏观经济的E3MG模型外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model Material Source: Energy Policy 38 (2010) 3067–3077 Author: A.S. Dagoumas , T.S. Barker Before deriving any particular conclusion from the scenarios presented in this paper, it is important to consider the modeling approach and the way the scenarios have been implemented with E3MG. E3MG being a macroeconometric model of the global economy has the advantage of examining policies at global and at national level, which is more important in cases of international efforts. The 40%, 60% and 80% reduction targets are not realistic options if implemented only by UK because they would not lead to a signi?cant reduction in climate change and because no single country would easily take a decision moving towards suchpolicies on its own. For these reasons we assume that the emissions reduction targets for the UK are implemented as part of international reduction targets. Based on the facts that the Obama USA Administration is committed to ?nding solution to climate change issue and the major developing countries are reluctant to adopt such policies in the medium term, a G8 reduction target of 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels seems to be a more realistic framework. The E3MG model adopts a hybrid approach. The aggregate and disaggregate energy demand is estimated using econometric techniques, allowing for fuel switching for the 12 different fuel types and for the 19 fuel users, while the power sector is simulated using a probabilistic approach which considers the economic, technical, environmental characteristics of the power units but considers also the history. The electric system expansion is modeled by using parameters for the different technologies based on historical data on learning rates, which allows new technologies to gain a share in the market even when their cost is higher than conventional technologies. Moreover the dispatch of the different technologies to