中国增长的对外依存度外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 Chinas Growing External Dependence Material Source: /external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/09/cui.htm Author:Mark Smith Rapidly growing foreign trade has been key to Chinas remarkable economic performance of the past three decades, yet the conventional view is that Chinas growth has been largely domestically driven. According to this view, China uses its abundant labor to assemble imported inputs into low-tech consumer goods and capital goods exports, making it the worlds workshop. Such processing trade typically adds little value to the domestic economy because the import content of exports is high. As a result, the argument goes, changes in global demand or in the exchange rate will have little direct impact on the economys trade balance or growth—any change in exports will be largely offset by changes in imports. So how does trade contribute to growth? The answer is through the transfer of better technology. Chinas trade underlies many formal analyses and policy discussions and even garners support from some empirical studies. For instance, Shu and Yip (2006) find that relative price changes have had a small effect on Chinas exports and trade balance, an outcome that has been attributed to its role as a processing center. But such a reading of Chinas economy does not reflect current realities. Although it may have described the Chinese economy in the early stages of reform, when China lacked domestic technological know-how and had to rely on imported intermediate products and capital goods for its production and exports (see Lemoine and ünal-Kesenci, 2002), a recent IMF study suggests that it may have become less accurate in recent years (Cui and Syed, 2007). The domestic content of Chinas exports has increased and its products have become more sophisticated, in part because of substantial investments and technological upgrades that have expanded the economys production capacity. Advancements in regional vertical integration (the degree to which a firm owns