我国学生体能发展趋势及其干预举措.pdfVIP

第 16 卷第 9 期 体 育 学 刊 Vol.16 No.9 2009 年 9 月 Journal of Physical Education S e p . 2 0 0 9 我国学生体能发展趋势及其干预措施 许良16 （重庆师范大学体育学院，重庆 400047 ） 摘 要：依据 1985 ～2005 年全国7 ～18 岁学生4 次体质监测数据，运用灰色理论GM(1 ，1) 模型方法，预测未来一个时期全国学生体能发展的期望值。主要结果：(1)未来一个时期，我国学 生力量素质及其与之密切相关的体能素质下降速度有望放缓；耐力素质持续加速下降且趋向“低龄 化”发展。(2)针对如何发展和提高学生体能素质，提出当前一方面要进一步发挥体育考试的导向 作用；另一方面要继续加强中小学体育教学与运动安全教育等干预措施。 关 键 词：学生体能素质；学生体质监测；灰色系统理论；中国 中图分类号：G807 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-7116(2009)09-0063-05 Chinese student physical stamina development trend and corresponding intervention measures XU Liang （School of Physical Education，Chongqing Normal University，Chongqing 400047，China ） Abstract: Based on data acquired in 4 physical check-ups performed on nationwide students at the ages of 7 to 18 between 1985 and 2005, the author predicted the expectation values for nationwide student physical stamina devel- opment in the next period to come by using the GM (1, 1) modeling method in the grey system theory. Main results: 1) In the next period to come, the speed of deterioration of Chinese students’ strength capacity as well as physical stamina capacity closely related to it can be slowed down as expected; their stamina capacity will continue to dete- riorate and such deterioration tends to happen to younger students; 2) aiming at how to develop and enhance stu- dents’ physical stamina capacity, the author put forward the following intervention measures: on the one hand, the guiding function of physical education examinations should be further exerted; on the other hand, elementary school