沧州地区近40年来气温和降水量的变化趋势分析3.pdfVIP

( ) ( ) 中国农业气象 Ch ine se Jou rnal of A grom eteoro logy 　2008, 29 2 : 143 - 145 沧州地区近 40年来气温和降水量的变化趋势分析 1 2 3 龚 　宇 ,邢开成 ,王 　璞 ( 1唐山市气象局 ,河北唐山 063000; 2沧州市气象局 ; 3中国农业大学农学系 ) 摘要 :采用线性分析方法和 R / S方法相结合 ,对沧州地区年降水量和年均气温的变化特点和未来趋势进行分析 。结果表明 ,该地区气 温和年降水量的变化特点与未来趋势不尽相同。气温在过去 35a 间呈上升趋势 ,变化率为 0394 ℃/ 10a, 同时 Hu rst指数为 0848,说明 当地未来气温增加的趋势可能还将持续 ;过去 51a 的年降水量呈现减少趋势 ,但降水量的 Hu rst指数仅为 053,说明当地年降水量在未 来有可能发生改变或者将保持基本稳定 。 关键词 :沧州地区;气温 ;年降水量 ;趋势 Research on Change Trend of Temperature and Prec ip ita tion in Cangzhou Nearly 40 Y ears 1 2 3 GO NG Y u , X ING Ka iCheng , W A NG Pu ( 1. Tangshan M eteorological Bureau, Tangshan 063000 , Ch ina; 2. Cangzhou M eteorological Bu reau; 3. College of A gronomy and B iotechnology, Ch ina A gricu ltu ral Un iversity) A b stract: By u sing linear and R e scaled R ange A nalysis (R / S) , the change characteristics and the future trend s of the annual p recip itation and the annual average temp eratu re in Cangzhou were analyzed. The re su lts showed that change characteristics and the future trend s of the temp eratu re and annual p recip itation were not sam e en tirely. The temp eratu re increa sed in the p a st 35 years w ith a change rate by 0. 394 ℃ p er ten years, wh ile the Hurst index wa s 0. 848 wh ich indicated that there existed obviou s Hu rst p henom enon in the fu tu re. A lthough the annual p recip itation was declin ing in