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Report | Macro Analysis Comments Report Those Who Hide Can FindComments on The U.S. Fiscal Cliff 5 Nov 2012Key DataOver-consumption and over-indebtedness are going to be a bitter pill for the developed USA countries to swallow. The turn of 2012 and 2013 is going to be the due date for a number of % 11 12E stimulative fiscal policies, and starting point for fiscal austerity plan. Fiscal cliff mainly GDP 1.7 2.0CPI 3.17 2.5 consists of five parts, changes in tax policy, lower or expired tax credits, changes in business Unemployment 9.0 8.2 tax law, expiration of the payroll tax credit and federal spending cutsTrade -3.14 -3.0balance/GDPCongress may take days to years to pass a bill. For example, the entire legislative process Fiscal of Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, including one amendment, completed in -8.2 -7.2balance/GDP only seven days. Therefore, we believe that the House and Senate have sufficient time to go Policy rate 0.25 0.25through the legislative process. The key is whether two parties can reach a consensus on the Dollar Index 80.187 81.0measures to mitigate the negative impacts brought by fiscal cliffEurozone % 11 12EUnder the forseeable recession risk faced by U.S. economy, we believe that both parties GDP 1.5 -0.5 will make concessions under both internal and external pressures, and reach an unanimous CPI 2.69 2.5 decision on how to solve the fiscal cliff. In addition to the tax aspect with significant Unemployment 10.2 11 Trade differences, the two parties hold same opinions on the reduction of defense spending-0.05 -0.1 balance/GDP Therefore, the two parties have the foundation to reach an agreement on the financial cliff, at Fiscal least part of it-4.1 -3.5 balance/GDP Policy rate 1 0.5According to the historical analysis, the scale of the sequestration mechanism can be EUR/USD 1.30 1.25 adjusted by the Congress. Congress can even decide whether to start the mechanism. If the sequestration does not tr