定期报告逆水行舟.pdfVIP

Report | Macro Analysis Sailing Against The Wind Regular Report Overseas Economic Outlook 2H2013 13 Jun 2013 U.S.: Economic growth faces fiscal headwinds Key Data Economic growth faces fiscal headwinds in 2H2013: The recent U.S. consumer USA spending and personal income data showed tax increases implemented at the start of the year % 12 13E started to have a negative impact. However, inventory adjustment by enterprises is expected GDP 1.7 2.0to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter. Taking into account the fiscal headwinds on CPI 2.1 2.1consumer spending, difficulties in the job market and changes in the inventory cycle, we Unemployment 8.1 7.5maintain our view that U.S. economic growth will slow down in the second quarter and pick Trade -3.0 -3.1up gradually in the third and fourth quarters. We expect annual U.S. GDP growth in 2013 to balance/GDP be 2.0%Fiscal -6.7 -5.8balance/GDP The earliest timing for bi-directional QE adjustment is September: The direction Policy rate 0.25 0.25of the Feds monetary policy remains to be seen. In our opinion, the earliest timing for the Dollar Index 79.7 86.0Fed to adjust the QE plan is September this year. However, we believe the Fed will not adjust Eurozone down the scale of its QE plan unless there is a strong recovery in the job market, given that % 12 13E negative impacts of the fiscal austerity measures have yet to be fully felt and consumer and GDP -0.6 -0.5 business confidence may fall due to the debt ceiling debate. Recent data show that the U.SCPI 2.5 1.5 Unemployment 11.4 12.3 job market has yet to show robust signs of recovery. Therefore, our baseline view is that the Trade Fed will change the pace of the asset purchase program in December 20131.23 1.54 balance/GDP We expect the dollar index to strengthen steadily in 2H2013: According to our Fiscal -3.7 -2.8 estimate, US dollar index could rise to the range of 85-90 in 2H2013 given the expectation balance/GDP Policy rate