定期报告希腊退出梦魇.pdfVIP

宏 观经济 Report | Macro Analysis Regular Report Nightmare of Grexitth An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development (5 Week May 28 May 2012 Key Data Euro zone flash composite and manufacturing PMI was 45.9 and 45 in May, which USA were three years low. The decline of business activity and new orders in May was % 11 12E GDP 1.6 2.0 the fastest in the past three years. Employment situation improved slightly as CPI 3.3 2.5 compared with April, but the drop in employment was still the highest since 2010Unemployment 9.0 8.2 The survey results showed that 2Q GDP may shrink by at least 0.5%. The sharp Trade -3.2 -3.0 decline in periphery economy has negatively impact on the economic outlook in balance/GDP Germany and France Fiscal -8.7 -7.2 balance/GDP Policy rate 0.25 0.25Grexit probability increased, but without the corresponding institutions, the Dollar Index 79.0 81.0 disorder default of Greece will lead to systematic risks for the euro zone. The Eurozone yields of Greek 10 year government bonds increased to 30%. As a rough 11 12E % estimation, Grexit will lead to about more than 400 bn loss for the public sector. If GDP 1.4 -0.5 we also take account of private sector loss as well as the exposure to derivatives CPI 2.69 2.1 and other potential risks, there will be about 500 bn losses for the public and Unemployment 10.17 10.6 private sectors Trade -0.33 -0.1 balance/GDP FiscalSpanish banking sector also continued to deteriorate. SP lowered the credit rating -4.2 -3.8 balance/GDP of five Spanish banks and raised the risk coefficient of the Spanish economy. In Policy rate 1 1 addition, one of the Spanish local governments indicated that they were facing Eruor/USD 1.30 1.25 financing difficulties. This further raises concerns about the contagion risksSource: Bloomberg, China Merchants EU informal summit did not have much substantive outcomes. European leaders Securities didn ’t have any agreement on policies to contain the crisis,