基于卡尔曼滤波模式预报风速订正方法研究.pdfVIP

主题 2 ：风能资源测评与发电量预报 基于卡尔曼滤波的模式预报风速订正方法研究 11 2 3 2 2 2 祝 赢 ,柳艳香 ,严金蓉 ,程兴宏 ,宋丽莉 ,黄凤新 1.北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院 2.中国气象局公共气象服务中心 3. 北京科技大学自动化学院 摘要：为了增强模式对风速的预报能力，提高风能预报的准确性，本文以我国某风电场 01#测风塔 2007 年 5 月和 11 月数据为例，通过卡尔曼滤波(Kalman Filter)方法对 WRF 模式预报风速进行订正， 订正后风速预报平均绝对误差分别由 1.93 m/s 降为 0.77m/s， 2.10m/s 降为 0.55m/s，订正后精度有 所提高，风速更加接近实况，表明卡尔曼滤波能够较好地订正模式预报风速，有效提高风速预报准 确率。 关键词：卡尔曼滤波（Kalman Filter ）；WRF 模式；风速预报；风速订正 Research of the Method of Wind Speed Correction with Kalman Filter 1 2 3 2 2 2 Zhu Ying , Liu Yanxiang , Yan Jinrong , Cheng Xingxiong , Song Lili , Huang Fengxin 1.School of Geography, Beijing Normal University 2. Public Weather Service Center of CMA 3. School of Automation, University of Science and Technology Beijing Abstract: In order to enhance the wind speed prediction ability and improve the accuracy of wind power forecasting, using the mast data near by a wind power farmer in our country, the simulated wind speed of WRF model in May and November 2007 was revised with Kalman filter method. The results shown that the absolute average error of wind speed forecasting dropt from 1.93 m/s to 0.77m/s in May, dropt 2.10 m/s to 0.55 m/s in November after the revision. The prediction precision was obviously improved. Resulting the wind speed closer to reality. It was proved that Kalman filter can better correct wind speed of WRF forecasting, effectively enhanced the wind speed forecasting accuracy. Keywords: kalman filter; WRF; wind speed forecast; wind speed correction 引言 数值模式是风电场风场模拟和预报的一种重要手段。对特定的风电场，一般采用中尺度