货币政策效果区域非对称性研究--基于闽赣两省的实证分析.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 货币政策效果区域非对称性研究——基于 闽赣两省的实证分析 全智敏，彭惠** 5 （北京邮电大学经济管理学院，北京 100876 ） 摘要：本文以福建省和江西省这两个经济发展存在较大差距的省份为研究对象，选取 1984-2011 年的年度数据，通过VAR 模型和脉冲检验函数实证地分析了统一的货币政策对 这两个省份的影响效果，研究发现，福建省的产出对货币政策变动的冲击更加敏感，受到货 10 币政策变动冲击的影响更大，统一的货币政策对这两个省份的影响是非对称的，即存在货币 政策区域效应。接着，本文从产业结构、市场化程度、对外开放程度以及金融业发展程度这 四个方面定性地分析了导致货币政策区域效应的原因，结果发现，除了产业结构差异不是导 致货币政策区域效应的原因外，其他三个因素均是。最后，本文就江西省如何减少货币政策 区域效应的影响提出了些政策建议。 15 关键词：货币政策；非对称性；VAR 模型；脉冲响应 中图分类号：F820-3 Research of Asymmetric Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: An Empirical Research Based on Fujian Province 20 and Jiangxi Province Quan Zhimin, Peng Hui (Economics and Management School, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876) Abstract : In this paper, Fujian Province and Jiangxi Province which two have a big gap in 25 economic development are chosen as research objects. Then, this paper chooses datum from 1984 to 2011 and makes an empirical analysis of the effects of unified monetary policy to these two provinces by using VAR model and Impulse Response test. Research shows that the output of Fujian Province is sensitive to the change of monetary policy and the change of monetary has a larger influence to the output of Fujian Province than the output of Jiangxi Province, unified 30 monetary policy has an asymmetric effect to these two provinces Next, this paper analyses the reasons of regional effects of monetary policy from industrial structure, degree of market, the openness and the devel