发达经济体非传统货币政策及其退出.pdfVIP

Jan. 15 , 2013 Working Paper No. 2014W03 李远芳 yflicass@163.com 发达经济体非传统货币政策及其退出 The Unconventional Monetary Policy of the Advanced Economies and Its Exit 摘要：本文介绍了国际金融危机后发达经济体非传统货币政策的内涵、形式以及实施 特点，对非传统货币政策的理论传导渠道以及经验评估进行总结。虽然直接从危机后 金融市场以及宏观经济走势上看，非传统货币政策的确显示出积极效果，但这一效果 面临收益递减约束，并对金融市场正常化运作产生不利影响。发达经济体退出非传统 货币政策从长远看符合全球宏观经济和金融稳定的共同利益，但由于缺乏先例，可能 存在相当程度操作风险和市场超调风险。我国应重视发达经济体非常规货币政策退出 的溢出效应，并从国内宏观政策、短期资本流动管理以及国际合作等领域加强对相关 风险的应对。 关键词：非传统货币政策 数量宽松 溢出效应 Abstract: The paper outlines the content, various forms and implementation process of the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in the advanced economies. It summarizes the theoretical transmission channel of the UMP and evaluates the empirical effects of it. Although the UMP has displayed positive effects from the evidence in the financial market and the macroeconomic development, its effects face diminishing returns and even to some extent dampen the normalization of the financial market. The exit from the UMP is in the long-term interest of global macroeconomic and financial stability. However, due to lack of precedence, large implementation risks and market overshooting risks exist in the process. China should pay close attention to the spillover effects during the exit of the UMP, and deal with the relevant risks with the domestic macroeconomic policy, the short-term capital flow management and the international policy coordination. Key words: unconventional monetary policy; quantitative easing; spillover effects 国际金融危机后，随着发达经济体中央银行传统货币政策空间快速耗尽，美英欧 日等货币当局陆续采取