长江输出溶解态无机磷的通量模型灵敏度分析及情景预测.pdfVIP

J. Lake Sc.i (湖泊科学), 2011, 23 ( 2): 163173 http: //www. jlakes. org. Em ail: jlakes@ niglas. ac. cn 2011 y Journal of Lake Sciences * 1, 2 1 1 李新艳 , 杨丽标 , 晏维金** ( 1: , 100101) ( 2: , 210008) : . , G lo alNEWS D IP), , , 2050 DIP. , 2 2 DIP, 2003 14. 05kg/km , 1970( 2. 45kg /km ) 5 . , 12. 29% . 1993 , DIP , 50% ; 1993 , , , , 2003 50. 30% ; , 22. 87% . 1993 , 2003 24. 81% . , 2050 , DIP 2000 2, DIP. , . : ;; ; ; ; S cenario pred ci tion and sens itiv ity o f m ode ling d isso vl ed inorgan ic phospho rous expo rt from the Y ang tze R vi e r 1, 2 1 1 LIX inyan , YANG L i iao YAN W eijin ( 1: Institute o fG eographic Sciences and Natura lResources Research, CAS, Beij ing 100101, P.R.China ) ( 2: Sta te Key La oratory of Lake Science and Environm ents, N anjing Institute o f Geography and L mi nology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R.China ) Abstrac t: Riverine transport is the principal pathw ay of dissolved elem ents from land to the sea. Based on the quantitative analysis of hum an effects on the phosphorus cycling w ithin the Y angtze R iver asin, w e estmi ated the exports of dissolved inorganic phos phorous ( DIP) from the Yangtze R iver to the estuary for the period y u sing the Glo alNEW SDIP m odel. Modeled 2 2 D IP export increased from 2. 45kg /km in 1970 to 14. 05kg /km in 2003 under the enhancing anthropogenic activ ities. No signifi cant difference ewt een them odeled and m easured values at the level of P = 0. 05 is o served, and the average m odel error is 12. 29% . D iffuse sources ( including chem ical fertilizer application and anmi alm anure P input) had contri uted the m ost in DIP export since 1993. The contri ution varied et