上海市房地产预警系统研究.pdf

电子科技大学MBA 论文 状。然后针对上海市商品住宅市场，从供给与需求相互作用的传统经 济分析角度、城市经营的角度、政府政策宏观调控等角度就上海地区 商品住房价格快速上涨的原因做一系统分析并提出相应的对策建议。 最后，在上海市房地产研究中心副理事长张鸿铭先生对于房地产预警 预报系统研究的现有基础上，就预测方法做了进一步讨论，同时在上 海市历年统计数据基础上对该方法进行了实证分析。证实该方法的现 实应用意义及存在的利与弊。 关键词 上海 商品住宅 房价 预警预报系统 II 电子科技大学MBA 论文 The Management of Shanghai Property Price and Discussion about Predicting System ABSTRACT The property price of Shanghai has increased dramatically since 1999, which gives a sign of over-heated market. So far, the property price of Shanghai has become the top 1 in China. According to the statistics, the property price of Shanghai has growing in growth rate over 10% for several years, especially in 2003, the growth rate is over 20%. There seems to be lots of reasons to cause these situations, including: the raise of real demands, narrow investment channel, easy bank credit, foreign capital in bursting, government invoking and .etc. In 1992-1993, there also had an over-heated property market, and had all kinds of arguments about it. In one hand, these arguments in rich people’s knowledge about the property, but in the other hand, so many thoughts also confuse people. The unilateral points and index can cause partial thoughts, even can further flustering the market. In such background, people begin to research a system that can predict and III 电子科技大学MBA 论文 forecast the property market, which can indicate developing situation, fluctuating situation, normal or abnormal, bubble or non-bubble. Firstly, this paper introduces ho