TheProfitRateandStagesofDevelopmentofUS…：发展我们的利润率和阶段….docVIP

Peak Oil, the Rise of China and India, and the Global Energy Crisis Dr. Minqi Li, Assistant Professor Department of Economics, University of Utah 1645 E. Campus Center, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 Phone: 801-828-5279; E-mail: minqi.li@ (Accepted by The Journal of Contemporary Asia for Publication, January 2007) Abstract Under the current trend, China and India are widely expected to play leading roles in the world economy in the 21st century. However, the economic rise of China and India coincides with the decline of fossil fuels. There is growing consensus that the world’s total oil production is likely to reach the peak in the near future and to alleviate global warming, it is necessary to dramatically reduce the use of all forms of fossil fuels. This paper discusses the interactions between the economic rise of China and India and the global energy crisis. Several scenarios that range from the failure of the Chinese and the Indian national development projects to global environmental catastrophes are discussed. Keywords China; India; Peak Oil; Global Energy Crisis; World Economy The spectacular growth of the Chinese and the Indian economy is transforming the world at an unprecedented pace. Under the current trend, China is set to become the world’s largest and India the third largest economy by 2020. Some predict that after centuries of Western domination, now it is just a matter of time before Asia recovers its historical leadership over the world economy with China and India at its center (Arrighi and Silver, 1999; Arrighi et al., 2003). The rise of western industrial capitalism under the British hegemony and the American hegemony coincided with (and one may say, depended upon) the enormous expansion of energy consumption, and especially the consumption of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal). Today fossil fuels account for 80 percent of the world’s total primary energy supply. However, there is growing consensus that the world’s total oil production