基于OD运量预测的铁路冷藏运输班列开行的研究.pdfVIP

文章编号：CAR290 基于 OD 运量预测的铁路冷藏运输班列开行研究 王佼 1 张晓东 1 周俊 2 邓彬 3 潘华 1 （1.北京交通大学交通运输学院；2. 中交投资有限公司；3.Kent 大学） 摘 要 地区间铁路冷藏货物 OD 交流量对于分析制定铁路冷藏货物列车开行方案十分重要。本文通过构建铁路冷藏货物 OD 运量预测模型，预测了主要城市间铁路冷藏货物完整 OD 量矩阵，在此基础上进行了主要城市间冷藏货流及铁路冷藏运 输班列组织形式分析，最终提出了铁路冷藏运输小编组冷藏班列、挂靠已有五定班列和积极组织“客车化”班列开行建议。 关键词 冷藏货物；OD 运量；预测；班列开行 Wang Jiao1 Zhang Xiaodong1 Zhou Jun2 Deng Bin3 Pan Hua1 (1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University； 2. CCCC Investment Company Ltd.; 3. University of Kent) Abstract The freight OD volume of railway refrigerated goods among regions in China is very important for analyzing railway refrigerated transportation train operation. This paper firstly uses an improved method of dual-constrained gravity model to forecast the complete freight OD volume matrix of railway refrigerated goods among the main cities. On basis of it, the paper analyzes the railway refrigerated goods volume among the main cities and organization modes of railway refrigerated transportation train operation. Finally the paper puts forward some suggestions on railway refrigerated transportation train operation such as developing less marshalling train, railway refrigerated transportation combined with present five scheduled trains and organization train according to passenger train. Keywords Refrigerated goods The freight OD volume Forecasting Train operation 随着中国国民经济快速发展、人民生活水平不 1 铁路冷藏货物 OD 运量预测模型 断提高，国内消费的水果、蔬菜、肉、水产、奶等 1.1 预测思路 鲜活易腐货物量日益增长，由此引发冷藏货物运输 铁路冷藏 OD 运量预测如果以全国各个冷藏运 需求迅速增加。在此形势下，铁道部正积极制定铁 输办理车站为研究对象，则会因为 OD 点数量过多、 路冷藏运输发展规划。其中，地区间铁路冷藏货物 车站的历史数据缺乏造成计算困难，所以本文重点 OD 交流运量作为铁路冷藏运输宏观统计和发展分 对主要地区间铁路冷藏货物 OD 量进行分析。首先 析的重