丹江口水库入库径流特征及其演变规律.pdfVIP

第 13 卷 第 1 期 南 水 北 调 与 水 利 科 技 Vol.13 No. 1 2015 年 2 月 South2to2 North Water Transfers and Water Science Technology Feb. 2015 DOI: 10. 13 76/ j . cnki. nsbdqk. 2015. 01. 00 王元超, 王 旭, 雷晓辉, 王 浩 ( 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038) : 为了能够更好地进行中长期径流预报, 1965 年- 2013 年的丹江口水库月平均入库流量进行径流特性分 析。首先采用线性回归法和 Mann2 Kendall 检验法进行趋势分析, 然后采用 Pettitt 突变检验法、Morlet 小波法分别进 行突变分析与周期分析。结果表明, 1965 年- 2013 年间丹江口径流量呈下降趋势, 并且分别存在3~ 5 a、7~ 9 a、18~ 20 a 的显著周期性。建议进行中长期年径流预报时采用7 a 或其倍数年做建模数据序列, 同时由于年径流与最大 洪峰流量的突变点均为1986 年, 所以尽量避开1986 年, 以免影响预报精度。 : 丹江口水库; 水文; 径流量; 洪峰; 汛期; 趋势; 突变; 周期 : TV 121 :A : 16722 1683( 2015) 0120015205 Inflowrunoff in the DanjiangkouReservoir and its evolution WANG Yuan2 chao, WANG Xu, LEI Xiao2hui, WANG H ao ( China Institute of Water Resources and H ydrop ow er Research State K ey L aboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in Riv er Basin, Beij ing 100038, China) Abstract:In order t o bet ter predict the long2term runoff, t he average monthly inflow runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir from 1965 t o 2013 were analyzed. The trend analysis was performed using the linear regression and Mann2 Kendall test met hods, the mutation analysis w as performed using the Pettitt mutation test method, and the cycle analysis w as performed using the Morlet wavelet met hod. The results show ed that the inflow runof f in the Danjiangkou Reservoir has a decline t rend from 1965 to 2013, and signif icant periodicity of 3~ 5, 7~ 9, and 18~ 20 years exists.T he mutation point of annual runoff and maximum peak flow occurred in 1986; therefore, the data of 1986 are bett er avoided in orde