温带风暴潮灾害应急管理专家系统的研究.pdfVIP

温带风暴潮灾害应急管理专家系统研究 Research of Emergency Management Expert System against Storm Tide Disaster in Temperate Zone 林 波1 LIN Bo （国家海洋环境预报中心，北京 100081） (National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre, Beijing 100081) 摘要：文章结合我国《风暴潮、海浪、海啸和海冰灾害应急预案》的指导思想和基本内容，重点阐述了该预案关于温 带风暴潮灾害应急管理指挥决策运行系统中的应急组织体系、监测及预警方式和保障措施等；并根据温带风暴潮灾害 应急指挥决策和运行管理需要，研究设计出了相应的辅助决策支持系统，该系统针对一般指挥决策人员无法胜任“跨 学科跨专业的技术全能”的现状，应用专家系统原理，实现了人机交互的、多知识库多主体群共存的智能再学习。 Abstract: Based on the guide ideology and the basic content about storm tide, ocean waves, tsunamis, and sea ice disaster emergency plans in our country, this article elaborates the emergency organization system, monitoring and warning method, safeguard of emergency management command and decision system against storm tide disaster in temperate zone. Meanwhile based on the needs of command, decision and running management against storm tide disaster in temperate zone, the author researches and designs corresponding assistance decision sporting system, which applies expert system theory to improve the situation that common commanders are incapable of multi-technology experts and which realizes the intelligent retraining of human-computer interaction, multi-knowledge and multi-main-block. 关键词：物理海洋学；温带风暴潮灾害；应急管理；辅助决策支持系统；研究 Keywords: Physical oceanography, storm tide disaster in temperate zone, emergency management, assistance decision sporting system, research 1 引言 风暴潮（又叫风暴增水）是由于受热带气旋、温带气旋等灾害性天气系统产生的大风、暴风所引起的 ［1］ 海面（海水）异常升高现象。我国历史文献中也有称为“海溢”、“海侵”、“海啸”或“大海潮”的。 由 温带气旋、冷空气引起的风暴潮称为温带风暴潮。[2]温带风暴潮是黄、渤海及我国北方沿海地区主要海洋