基于系统动力学的生物质供应组织结构绩效研究.docVIP

基于系统动力学的生物质供应组织结构绩效研究 王琳颖1，张永2，俞强2，樊嘉卿2 , （1.北京交通大学 交通运输学院，北京 100044；2.东南大学 交通学院，南京 210096） 摘要：首先对当前提出的两种生物质供应组织结构进行了分析，基于系统动力学理论建立了两种供应产品下的“农户+公司”和“农户+中间组织+公司”模型，并运用STELLA软件进行了仿真分析。最后得出采用“麦秆+棉秆”组合的供应原料优于“稻秆+棉秆”组合；适当的预处理能降低物流成本，其中干燥技术在生物质发电供应链中比较适合采用；对于短途运输来说适合采用“挤压+干燥”的预处理组合；对于长途运输来说，适合“压紧+干燥”的预处理组合。 关键词：生物质;供应链;系统动力学;结构 Study on the performances of various biomass supply chain structures based on system dynamics?models WANG Lin-yin1, ZHANG Yong2, YU Qiang2, FAN Jia-qing2, （1.School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao tong University, Beijing, 100044, China；2.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China） Abstract：Farmer + Company and Farmer + intermediate organization +?Company” are two of the most common?supply?organizational?structures. For both?structure models, this paper analyzes?the impact factors and logistics?cost of?the supply chain, and establishes?system dynamics?model of?two kinds of raw?material. Moreover,?it also used?STELLA?to carry on a software?simulation analysis.?For?the case of farmer?+ company?organizational model, through the?analysis of transportation costs and inventory?costs under different?combinations?of raw materials, we can get?the optimal combination of raw materials.?Considering farmer +?intermediate organization + company”?organizational model,?in?the case of?a fixed?combination?of raw materials,?analyze the cost change under the four?pre-treatment combinations which are squeeze +?dry , squeeze?+ grain ,compression?+ dry ?and compression + tablets. And further get the optimal the?pretreatment?combination. At?the same time,?the studies also analyze the costs?change of different transport distance under the four mentioned combinations. Key words: biomass; supply chain; system?dynamics; performances 1引言 生物质能资源包括农作物秸秆和农业加工剩余物、薪材及林业加工剩余物、禽畜粪便、工业有机废水和废渣、城市生活垃圾和能源植物，可转换为多种终端能源如电力、气体燃料、固体燃料和液体燃料。 对于生物质能源企业来说，生物质的供应包括收集、运输、存储等一系列环节。在我国以农作物的秸秆（如稻秆、棉秆、麦秆）为原料的供应，由于其具有结构松散、密度小、发热量低等特性导致了运输成本的居高不下，又因为其具有生物呼吸特