拥挤收费下基于前景理论出行者路径选择行为分析.pdfVIP

拥挤收费下基于前景理论的出行者路径选择行 为分析 王健 1 侯亚丽 1 胡晓伟 1 (1.哈尔滨工业大学 交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨 150090 ) 摘 要：出行者（特指私家车出行者）路径选择行为的研究,对于城市的交通管理和交 通组织都有着重要的意义,而且随着交通出行费用的不断增加, 以及道路拥挤收费政策 逐步实施,仅仅考虑距离最短、时间最短来对出行者路径选择行为模型进行研究,往往模 型的实用性欠佳.针对以往的研究中考虑因素单一、模型实用性不强这一问题,本文运用 能有效描述出行者不确定性条件下决策行为的前景理论,综合考虑出行者的出行时间、 出行费用以及出行者的个人偏好、出行经验等因素,建立一个更为贴合实际的出行者路 径选择行为模型.并以实际算例的形式对比分析了，不同收费标准对不同出行者人群、 不同性质出行的路径选择行为的影响程度.结果表明:与拥挤收费政策实施前相比,收费 3 元时,高收入水平出行者购物出行时的路径发生变化,而对于通勤出行，当收费大于 6 元时出行路径才发生变化;对于中低收入水平出行者来说, 因为其较高收入者对费用更 为敏感,所以拥挤收费政策实施后他们的反应也不尽相同. 关键词：拥挤收费,前景理论,路径选择,行为分析 中图分类号：U491 文章标志码：A A behavior analysis of traveler’s route choice based on prospect theory under the policy of congestion charging WANG Jian HOU Ya-li HU X iao -wei (School of Transportation Science and Engineering , Harbin Institute of Technology, Harb in, Heilongjiang 150090, China ) Abstract ：The research of traveler ’s route choice behavior , especially the private car traveler, is of great significance to the city traffic management and traffic organization . With the t r avel expenses increased unceasingly, and the po licy of congest ion charging to be implemented step by step, the key point that the private car traveler considered is more than the traveling time. So the traveler ’s route choice behavior model that just considered traveling time is with poor p racticability undoubtedly . In allusion to this problem, this article u se s prospect theory which is formulated for travelers’ route choice behavior to set up a more effective traveler ’s route choice behavior model . And this model integrate s traveling time, travel ing expenses , traveler ’s preference and traveler ’s experience completely. Finally, a realistic case analysis is used to study the effects of cong