次贷危机下我国长三角和中部六省金融产业和实体经济互动影响的实证研究.pdfVIP

次贷危机下我国长三角与中部六省金融产业与实体经济互动影响的实证研究 1,2 2 何宜庆 ，文静 （南昌大学 1. 中国中部经济发展研究中心，江西南昌，330047；2.系统工程研究所，江 西南昌，330031） 摘要：本文研究在次贷危机背景下长三角地区 （江、浙、沪三省市）与中部六省 （湖南、 湖北、山西、江西、安徽和河南）的金融产业与实体经济之间的互动影响机制。通过主成 分分析得出分别代表长三角地区和中部六省的金融综合指标与实体经济综合指标，基于 VAR模型的方差分解分析，得出危机后金融产业与实体经济跨区域影响。在此结论的基础 上，对分指标进行Granger因果检验，进一步确定具体的影响渠道。通过实证分析，建议中 部六省加强金融产业与实体经济系统的稳定性，抓住金融产业中银行业，实体经济中消费 与投资这三条主线，促进金融与经济协调发展，实现中部崛起。 关键词：次贷危机；金融产业；实体经济；方差分解；Granger 因果检验 中图分类号：F830.9 文献标识码：A Empirical Study on the Mutual Impacts between the Real Economy and Finance System in the Yangtza River Delta Region and the Six Central Provinces under the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis HE Yi-qing 1,2, WEN Jing2 Abstract: In this paper, we research the mutual impacts between the finance industry and the real economy in the Yangtza River Delta region (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai) and the six central provinces(Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Anhui and Henan) under the financial crisis. Through principal components analysis, we get the total indices which stand for the real economy and finance system of the two regions. By Vector Autogression model and variance decomposition, we compare the mutual impacts between the finance industry and the real economy after the financial crisis. Based on that, we use Granger causality test to conclude the specific effects among the sub-indices. Finally, the empirical studies show that the six central provinces should strengthen the stability of the finance industry and real economy system. W hat’s more they should catch t hree main lines — the banking in finance industry and the consumption, investment in real economy in order to promote the coordinated development between finance and economy and achieve the rise of Central China rapidly. 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目；教育部人文社科