基于改进重力模型的高速铁路短期客流预测研究_杨晓.pdfVIP

旅客运输 旅客运输 铁道运输与经济 RAILWAY TRANSPORT AND ECONOMY + 文章编号：1003-1421(2012)09-0029-05 中图分类号：U293.1 3；U238 文献标识码：A 基于改进重力模型的高速铁路 短期客流预测研究 Research on Prediction of Short-period Passenger Flow of High-speed Railway Based on Updated Gravity Model 杨  晓，崔艳萍 YANG Xiao, CUI Yan-ping （中国铁道科学研究院 运输及经济研究所，北京 100081） (Transportation and Economy Research Institute, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: Grounded on the consideration of periodicity 摘 要：在考虑高速铁路短期客流周期性 and volatility of short-period passenger flow of high-speed 和波动性的基础上，提出和建立反映短期 railway, the updated gravity model reflecting time-space 客流时空变化特征的改进重力模型，探讨 changing characteristics of short-time passenger flow is proposed and built, and the passenger flow prediction 回归分析和季节指数相结合的客流预测 method with the combination of regression analysis and 方法。通过实例研究，采用最小二乘法对 season index is approached. Through case study, Least 模型进行参数标定，在此基础上预测未来 square method is adopted to calibrate parameters, and 年的月度客流量。实证表明，采用改进重 based on which, monthly volume of passenger flow in 力模型进行短期客流预测具有较好的适 the coming year is predicted. The case study shows that predicting short-period passenger flow by using updated 用性。 gravity model