Networking in 5-50 Years ndash; applications and requirements.ppt

Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University hgs@ Overview Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly Hypothesis: all major communications modes have been explored replacement dedicated ? IP largely complete Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies: energy costs, pollution ? fuel cells higher speed ? jet engine New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven Reliability is the real QoS Networking is getting into middle years Standardization Really two facets of standardization: public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum) reduction to 1-3 common technologies LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, … ? Ethernet WAN: IP, X.25, OSI ? IP Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent conversions Technologies at ~30 years Other technologies at similar maturity level: air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner) cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T) analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone) railroad: 1800s -- ? Observations on progress 1960s: military ? professional ? consumer now, often reversed Oscillate: convergence ? divergence continued convergence clearly at physical layer niches larger ? support separate networks Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low): exceptions: telex, telegram, semaphores ? fax, email X.25 + OSI, X.400 ? IP, SMTP analog cell phones History of networking History of networking = non-network applications migrate postal intracompany mail, fax ? email, IM broadcast: TV, radio interactive voice/video communication ? VoIP information access ? web, P2P disk access ? iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP Network evolution Only three modes, now thoroughly explored: packet/cell-based message-based (application data units) session-based (circuits) Replace specialized networks left to do: embedded systems need cost(CPU + network) $10 cars i