87化理论的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能预测模型.pdfVIP

( 2011- 05) 1 石庆礼, 杨胜强, 蒋承林, 何 磊 ( 中国矿业大学 安全工程学院, 江苏 徐州 221008) : 研究了数量 理论建模的原理和方法, 收集了近 3年来 100多对矿井的实测初始释 放瓦斯膨胀能资料, 获得 10组可靠数据, 选取煤的破坏类型为定性说明变量, 瓦斯放散初速度 煤的坚固性系数瓦斯压力为定量说明变量, 建立了基于数量 理论的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能预 测模型, 通过模型检验和精度分析, 得出模型拟合效果好, 预测精度能够满足工程精度要求, 说明 利用数量 理论对初始释放瓦斯膨胀能进行预测是可行的 : 数量 理论; 初始释放瓦斯膨胀能; 单项指标; 预测模型 : TD712 : A : 1003- 496X( 2011) 05- 0001- 04 Research on Expansion Energy in InitialReleasedGas PredictionModelBased onQuantification Theory SH IQ ing- li, YANG S eng- q iang, JIANG C eng- lin, HE Lei (Faculty of Saf ety Eng ineering, China University of M ining Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China) Abstract: W it t em odeling principle and m et od based on quantification t eory I stud ied, actual data of expansion energy in in itial released gas in m ore t an one undred m ines are collected during t ree years, In t isw ay, t e group of ten reliable data of expans ion energy in initial released gas are obtained. t en, a expansion energy in in itial released gas pred iction m odel is estab lis ed based on quantification t eory I w it dynam ic failure of coal seam as t e qualitative exp lanatory variable and initial speed of m et ane diffusion, coal rigid ity and gas pressure as qualitative explanatory variab les. dataw erew ell described by verification of t em odel and accuracy a nalysis. t e accuracy of t em odelm eets t e requ irem ents of t e engineering needs. It ind icates t at t e prediction for expansion energy in initial released gas is feasible by quantification t eory. K ey ords: quantification t eory; expansion energy in initial released gas; ind ividual index; prediction m odel , , , , 3-