基于ARIMA的乘积季节模型在城市供水量预测中的应用.pdfVIP

第 2 2卷第 1期 水 资源 与水 工程 学报 Vo.l 22 No. 1 2 0 1 1年 2 月 Journal ofW aterR esources W ater Engineering Feb. , 20 1 1 ARIMA 赵 凌, 张健, 陈涛 ( , 610068) : , 2006 2010 2, , , 12 ARIMA( 3, 1, 1) ( 1, 1, 1) , 2010, : ; ; ; AR IMA ; ; : F224; TU 1. 3 : A : 1672643X( 2011) Application of product seasonalARIMA model to the forecast of urban water supply ZHAO L ing, ZHANG ian, CHEN Tao ( VisualComputing and VirtualReality Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of M athematics and Sof twareScience, Sichuan ormal University, Chengdu 610068, China) Abstract: W ith China s rapid econom ic grow th, the peop le s incom e levels significantly increased w ith rapid increase of the city w ater supp ly and w ater use. based on the water supply data in Chengdu C ity from 2006 to the February 2010, disregarded the long- term trends and seasonal factors, through analysis and identification for the residual sequence, th is paper established the city monthly w ater supply of the 12 product seasonalARIMA model ( 3, 1, 1) ( 1, 1, 1) . A ccord ing to this model, the paper forecasted the month w ater supply in whole 2010, the effectw as good. K ey words: urbanw ater supply; forecast of urbanw ater supply; seasonal effects; AR IMA model; prod uct seasonalmodel [ 67] 0 , , , , , , ,