全运会比赛主场优势量化分析.pdfVIP

第 32 卷第 5 期 2010 年 9 月 Vol. 32 No. 5 Journal of Tangshan Teachers College Sep. 2010 全运会比赛主场优势的量化分析 李绍勇 （西北师范大学体育学院，甘肃 兰州 730030 ） 摘 要：从数学、统计学的视角，采用文献资料、调查研究、数学和逻辑推理等研究方法，对举办过全运会 的省（市）在比赛中取得的成绩进行量化分析。研究显示：东道主获奖牌数是他们到客场比赛获奖牌数均值的 1.56 倍，是他们在全运会举办年上届和下届全运会比赛中获奖牌数均值的 1.55 倍；最近几届全运会东道主金牌的平均 增长率是 69.17% ，奖牌增长率是48.62%；东道主的金牌率比他们到客场参加全运会比赛的金牌率多 55.22% ，奖 牌率多 46.90%；进入 21 世纪，全运会主场优势更为显著。这说明，在全运会比赛中存在巨大的主场优势。 关键词：全运会；东道主；主场优势；奖牌率；金牌率 G812.20 A 1009-9115(2010)05-0101-03 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 文章编号： The Quantitative Analysis of the Home Advantage in National Games Matches LI Shao-yong (School of Physical Education, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730030, China) Abstract: In this paper, mathematical, statistical perspective, using literature, research studies, mathematics and logical reasoning and other research methods were used to quanitatively analyze the achievements in the National Games. Studies have shown that the number of licenses in their host matches is 1.56 times that of in the National Games and is 1.55 times that of in the last and the next National Games Matches. The mean increase rate of gold medals in recent National Games is 69.17% and the totle medals growth rate is 48.62%. The number of gold medals in host match is 55.22% more than that in guest match and the totle medals in host match is 49.60% more than that in guest match. The host-match advantage in National Games will be more significan