基于实物期权的移动服务风险管理改进策略的研究.pdfVIP

基于实物期权的移动服务风险管理改进策略研究 1 刘玉青, 张金隆, 毛明松 （华中科技大学管理学院，湖北  武汉 430074 ） 摘 要：随着移动终端设备的发展和普及，包括移动支付、移动股市、移动银行与移动办公等在内的各种移动服务开 始走入大众生活。而面对移动商务经营环境的不断变化，每一项新移动服务的开发和经营都面临着如何在价值链层面开 展合作、服务推广成本核算和未来收益分析等一系列精细化风险评估过程。本文在总结前人对移动商务风险研究的基础 上，系统分析了移动商务的各类风险要素，将实物期权理论应用于移动商务领域，为移动商务风险评估与规避引入了新 的工具和方法。通过实物期权协议，运营商能够购买服务提供商所开发移动服务未来收益的期权，从而实现了根据市场 变化对移动服务生命周期内收益和风险价值链双方分担比例的动态调整，因此能够有效降低运营商和服务提供商的价值 链合作风险、市场前景风险和成本管理风险。 关键词：移动商务；风险要素；实物期权协议；风险规避 中图分类号：（作者本人填写） 文献标识码：A 文章编号： Mobile Commerce Risk Avoidance Strategy Based on The Real Option Theory LIU Yuqing, ZHANG Jinlong, MAO Mingsong (Management School of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei, 430074) Abstract ：As the development and popularization of the mobile terminal equipment, various mobile service began to come into people’s life, including mobile payment, mobile marketing, mobile banking and mobile office automation, But when facing with the constant changing of business environment, the development and management of every new mobile service is accompanied with a series of risk problems, such as the value chain cooperation, market promotion cost and forecasting the future profit. The current literatures have studied some aspects of mobile commerce risk. However, still we could find the lack of systematic analysis, evaluation and simulation framework for mobile commerce risk management.For the specific risk avoidance strategies in the mobile commerce value chain, this paper achieved pareto improvement by the dynamic sharing of mobile commerce risk using real option theory. With the real option contract, the mobile network operators could purchase the option of a mobile service from service providers, thus the dynamic adjustment of returns and risk sharing