市场份额测量分析法.pdfVIP

WEMC FS#2-08 Evaluating Market Size Russell Tronstad, Ph.D. Professor and Extension Specialist, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Arizona Overview One of the most important tasks in evaluating the economic viability of a niche market is determining the size of the market. If the market is too small, there will not be enough sales available to cover startup, capital, and operating costs. Conversely, if the market potential looks quite large, it is not a niche market and direct competition in the form of commodity markets will likely prevail, unless a competitive edge that others cannot replicate can be created. To determine the market size of a niche product, information regarding typical consumption patterns and consumer demographics proves very useful. Consumption Considerations Average annual U.S. consumption levels of several hundred foods are readily available from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) for years back to the early 1900s for some foods (see the “More Information” section at the end of this fact sheet for the Web address for this service). Users can download data in spreadsheets or make custom queries for specific food groups, commodities, and/or years. For example, Figure 1 shows how a query of “fresh fruit by farm weight” for strawberries can provide a graphical display of the annual average consumption of fresh strawberries, in pounds, consumed per person in the U.S. from 1970 to 2006 (the years for which data is available varies by product). This information can be used to help producers determine whether the market size is right for the niche product or operation under consideration. Figure 1: Avera