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* * * * * * 申万研究 Jack He May. 25th, 2009 Dream with Central region * * Time to see economic slowdown in Eastern region The aspiration of Central region 3. The path of industrial relocation Agenda * * 1.1 Slowdown in eastern region: export and FDI source：CEIC,SWS research The model, ‘developed country – processing country – resource-rich country’, asks for a change. For a long time in the future, U.S. deposit rate will step up and hover in highs, constituting constraints on China’s exports. China should rely more on domestic demands. FDI growth rate in central area surpasses eastern area. Saving rate in USA is on rise FDI growth rate in central area surpasses eastern area * * 1.2 Slowdown in eastern region: Urbanization pace decelerated Urbanization in eastern region has reached a high level. Many coastal provinces, such as Jiangsu, reported a comparatively low level of urbanization because of regional difference within the province Development tempo would certainly slow down, when urbanization level stood at highs source：CEIC,SWS research * * 1.3 Slowdown in eastern region: infrastructures tend to be saturated Demands for infrastructures construction tend to be saturated in the eastern region, leaving a small space for future development source：CEIC,SWS research * * 1.4 Slowdown in eastern region: a must when a certain level of economic development is reached What happened in Taiwan and in Japan? Economic development entered a new stage when GDP per capita exceeded $3000 Economic growth in Taiwan Consumption ratio in Taiwan Economic growth in Japan Consumption ratio in Japan source：CEIC,SWS research * * Time to see economic slowdown in Eastern region The aspiration of Central and Western region 3. The path of industrial relocation Agenda * * 2.1 Expanding domestic demand rests with exploiting central and western regions The model ‘developed country – processing country – resource-rich country’ asks for a change. The break-off of the Gol