干线公路冰雪环境下交通运行可靠度研究.pdfVIP

第12卷 第4期 交通运输系统工程与信息 Vol郾12 No郾4 2012 年 8 月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology August 2012 文章编号: 1009鄄6744 (2012)04鄄0167鄄05 干线公路冰雪环境下交通运行可靠度研究 臧晓冬* (广州大学 土木工程学院,广州510006) 摘要:摇 为了评价冰雪环境对公路网运行质量的影响,以便及时制定相应的管理对策将 冰雪灾害的影响降到最低,提出了应用交通运行可靠度评价公路运行质量的方法,并以 行程时间作为评价指标.以黑龙江省的干线公路网为研究对象,根据实测数据验证了降 雪情况下路段的行程时间符合正态分布的特性.应用可靠性理论和概率与数理统计理 论建立了路段可靠度计算模型,根据路面磨擦系数与行程时间的关系,提出了行程时间 的阈值和判定冰雪灾害发生的标准.根据黑龙江省干道网的布局,建立了路径和路网可 靠度的分析方法,并应用实例验证了本方法的可行性. 关键词:摇 交通工程;可靠度;系统可靠性理论;干线路网;交通运行;冰雪环境 中图分类号:摇 U491.1 文献标识码:摇 A Reliability Research of Traffic Operation for Artery Network under Snow Conditions ZANG Xiao鄄dong (School of Civil Engineering,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou510006,China) Abstract:摇 To evaluate the influence of snow on highway traffic operation,andthusto make corresponding management strategies toeffectively decreasetheinfluence,thepaperpresentsthetrafficoperationreliability and selects travel time as the evaluation index. Regarding the artery network in Heilongjiang province of China as the object,thetravel time in segments of highway isprovedtofollow the normal distribution based on thefield data. The reliability model of segment is developed by the reliability theory,Probability and mathematical statistics theory. And the threshold value of the evaluation index of the travel time is given based on the relationship between friction coefficient and travel time. Then,a assessment criterion whether the snow disaster will happen is put forward. Considering the layout o