基于大数据模拟的填海造地规模管控标准和方法的研究--以天津市滨海新区填海造地情况为例.pdfVIP

基于大数据模拟的填海造地规模管控标准与方法研究 ——以天津市滨海新区填海造地情况为例 张 赫，姜 薇，王 睿 （天津大学建筑学院，天津 300072 ） 摘要：针对我国填海造地快速发展过程中，规模控制缺乏科学制定依据和有效、可量化的管控标准的现实，以 大数据为基础，运用系统动力学法对需求与供给的分析进行综合平衡，建立规模评定系统因果关系总图。并在 此基础上建立定量的方程关系，设定总计 44 组主要运算方程。最后通过天津滨海新区填海造地模拟验证，预 测未来的用地平面布局，并推出系统模型关键参数，从而建立了可应用于其他填海造地区域的，全面、系统、 客观、可量化、易操作的填海造地规模评定系统模型。 关键词：填海造地；大数据模拟；规模评定系统；系统动力学1 Research on Scale Assessment Standard and Method of Reclamation Based on Big Data Simulation ——Illustrated by the case of Tianjin Binhai New Area ZHANG He ，JIANG Wei ，WANG Rui (College of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 ,China) Abstract: In view of rapid development of land reclamation in China, faced with the reality that scale control of land reclamation is lack of scientific basis as well as effective and quantifiable standard, this paper use system dynamics method to establish causal relationship graph of the evaluation system based on Big Data after comprehensive balancing of supply and demand. Then, this paper set up 44 main operation equations to establish equation relationship according to the causal relationship graph. Finally, through simulation and verification in Tianjin Binhai New Area, this paper successfully predicts future land use layout, and obtains key parameters of the system model. In this way, a comprehensive, systemic, objective, quantifiable, and operable land reclamation scale control system model, which also can be used in other reclamation area, is established.. Keywords: land reclamation, Big Data simulation, scale assessment system, system dynamics 作者简介：张赫（1982.9-）；男；博士；讲师；从事的研究领域：填海造地、城市设计；城市规划学会会员； 联系电话E-mail ：ccazh200