基于RBF神经网络马尔可夫模型的降水量预测_闭祖良.pdfVIP

节水灌溉20 10 年第11 期 1 : 1007- 4929( 20 10) 11- 000 1- 03 RBF 1 1 1 2 闭祖良 , 张展羽 , 朱新国, 刘 莉 ( 1. , 2 10098; 2 . , 223800) : 降水量预测是制定抗旱防涝对策的重要依据, 其预测 法是科学准确预测降水的重要手段为提高降 水量预测的精确度, 应用 RBF 神经网络与马尔可夫相结合, 建立 R- M 降水量预测模型, 介绍了它的基本原理及算 法, 并给出了该模型建立的具体过程, 最后将该模型应用于降水量预测工作中, 实例验证结果令人满意 : R BF 神经网络; 马尔可夫; 降水量预测 : S 165 . 25 : A Precipitation Predicting Based on Improved RBF Neural Network and Markov Model 1 1 1 2 BI Zu-liang , ZHANG Z an-yu , ZHU Xin- guo , LIU Li ( 1. Colleg e o f Wa er Co nser vancy and H ydro po w er Eng ineering, H ohai U niver si y , N anj ing 2 1009 8, China; 2 . Suqian Wa er A ff air s Bureau, Suqian 223800 , China) Abstract:P recipi a io n pr edic ing is an impo r an base of making coun ermeasures f or dro ug h and f loo d. T he selec ion o f for ecas ing me ho d is also impor an for scien if ic and accur a e pr ecipi a ion predic ing . T he model of RBF neura l ne w or k and M arkov mo del is br ough o u in his paper brings o u , and i s basic pr inciple as w ell as alg o ri hm is in r oduced in de ail. T he model building- up pr ocess is also in ro duced. Finally , i is a pplied o predic mon hly precipi a ion , and he r esul sho w s ha i is pr ac icable o pr edic . Key words:R BF ne w or k; M ar ko v predic io n; pr ecipi a io n predic ing , , , , , , RBF ,