《Assessment of Risk of Establishment of Wheat Dwarf Bunt Tilletia controversa in China》.pdfVIP

Journal of Integrative Agriculture 20 13, 12( 1): 87-94 January 2013 RESEARCH ARTICLE Assessment of Risk of Establishment of W heat Dwarf Bunt (Tilletia controversa) in China 1, 2 1 1 3 2 1 JIA Wen-ming , ZHOU Yi-lin , DUAN Xia-yu , LUO Yong , DING Sheng-li , CAO Xue-ren and Bruce D L Fitt4 1 S tate K ey L aboratory fo r B iology of P lant D iseases and Insect P ests, Ins titute of P lant P rotection, Chinese A cademy of Ag ricultural Sciences, B eij ing 100193, P .R .China 2 Ag ricultural Colleg e, Shihez i University, Shihez i 832003, P .R .China 3 Dep artment of P lant Pathology, China Ag ricultural University, B eijing 100193, P .R .China 4 University of Hertf ordshire, Ha tfield, Hertfo rdshire AL 10 9AB, UK Abstract Wheat dwarf bunt, caused by Tilletia controversa K hn (TCK), is an important quarantine wheat disease throughout the world. Based on published research results of the biology and the epidemiology of the disease, the main factors including temperature, humidity, snow cover, and their parameters relating to teliospore germination, infection and epidemics of TCK were determined. The geophytopathological models for the risk analysis of wheat dwarf bunt establishment were modified. Fifty-year meteorologic data from about 500 weather stations in China were used to calculate the probabilities of TCK establishment in different geographic sites with the models. The map that displays the establishment risk of TCK in winter wheat growing region s in China was generated by using geographical information system (GIS). The zones showing high, moderate, low, and very low, including no risk, of TCK establishment accounted f