中美欧2020后减缓气候变化行动目标比较研究.pdfVIP

Climate Change 气候变化 中美欧 2020 后减缓气候变化 行动目标比较研究 张晓华，祁  悦，刘林蔚 （国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心，北京100038 ） 摘要：作为温室气体排放量最大的三个经济体，中、美、欧2020 年后应对气候变化的行动目 标备受国际社会关注。本文从排放现状、目标情景、排放轨迹、累积排放、GDP 碳强度、非化石能 源发展等不同角度对中、美、欧的目标进行了比较，分析了中、美、欧目标和所需行动的异同。本 文旨在通过比较分析更好地理解中、美、欧的目标和行动，而并非评价中、美、欧行动目标力度的 相对大小。应对气候变化是一个迭代的决策过程，每个国家目标的制定需要综合考虑多方面的因素， 都有一个结合具体实践不断调整和加强的过程。中、美、欧的新目标将应对气候变化的努力推到了 一个更高的起点而并非行动的终点。 气候变化 国家自主贡献 减缓 2020 年后 关键词： ； ； ； F416 A 1003-2355-(2015)07-0011-06 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 文章编号： Doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2355.2015.07.002 As the world s three largest economies of GHG emissions, the goals of China, US and EU with regard Abstract: ’ to addressing climate change in post-2020 are of great concerns of international community. This paper conducts an analysis and comparison on the goals of three economies from the perspectives of current emission, future emission under respective goals, emission trajectories, cumulative emissions, GDP carbon intensity, and development of non- fossil fuels, further presents the common as well as the different features of those goals and required actions. The aim of the paper is not to make a judgment on whose goal is more ambitious but rather to facilitate the understanding of those goals and actions required to achieve those goals. Addressing climate change needs an iterative decision-making process. Various factors need to be considered in a balanced manner to determine a reasonable and feasible goal, which will be enhanced and adjusted based on the experiences and lessons learned from the implementation practices. The goals of those three economies should be considered as a higher sta