Climate Change and Hydrologic Models A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments.pdfVIP

Water Resources Management 13: 369–382, 1999. 369 © 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. Review Paper Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments CHONG-YU XU Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Villavagen 16, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden, e-mail: chong-yu.xu@hyd.uu.se (Received: 10 May 1999; in final form: 11 November 1999) Abstract. Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the com- plexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs’ ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified. Key words: climate change, general circulation models, hydrological models. 1. Introduction Increased concentration of greenhouse gases is expected to alter the radiative bal- ance of atmosphere, causing increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns and other climatic variables (Houghton et al., 1990). One of the most important impacts on society of future climatic changes will be changes in re- gional water availability. Such hydrologic changes will affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood con- trol, municipal and industrial water supply, and fish and wildlife management. For example, larger reservoir spillways and drainage waterways will be requir