房地产企业财务预警系统探究.pdf

英文摘要 ABSTRACT Traditional financial precaution is for taking precautions against financial crisis, which is a crisis controlling mechanism: it is not only taking precautions but also giving an alarm. Firstly, forecast the financial crisis, secondly, warn the managers and the interest relation parties the crisis in a special way and give them some useful advise on evading risks; modernistic financial precaution is not only estimating the financial crisis, but also controlling and judging financial activities in the daily life of the enterprises, it also provide the information for the financial decision of the company, which can improve the capacity of continuable development and financial competition , maximize the owners’benefits. On the basis of referring to the papers of financial precaution, this dissertation, by operating interior controlling theory and real estate cycle fluctuating theory, profoundly analyzes the reasons of financial crisis and indicates the environments that caused financial crisis, which lay the foundation for excluding alerts. Combining operating and financing characters, analysing formers’studies, this dissertation selects pertinent ratios for identifying real estate Company’s financing crisis, which ensure the validity of model. In demonstration, the paper selects listed real estate companies to establish a precaution model by the Logit regression method. The result indicates: ①Three years before the crisis coming, current ratio is the most significant one, its correct class is 88.5%. But two years before, the most significant one is operation fund to assets ratio, which correct class is also 88.5%; ②The significancy that variables to dependent variable are obviously enhanced.