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A B S T R A C T
R e e en t y e ars,a s e sta te i·n d u stry 15 b e c o m in g w amr er an d w arm er,
m an y e state c o m P an ie s lo an fro m th e e o m m erc ia l b ank o r g a in
d ev e lo P in g eap ita l fro m fin an c ia l an d o th er n o n 一fin an c ia l in stitu tio n s.
T h is P ap er re sear eh e s th e ered it risk o f th e e state c o m P an y fro m th e an g le
o f th e in stitu tio n issu in g lo a n lik e co m m ere ia l b an k .
T h is P ap er 15 d iv id e d int o six ch ap ters. T h e first ch ap ter intro d u c e s
th e b a ck g ro u n d ,re se arch in g m eth o d s an d th ink in g P ath ,re seareh in g
staut s q u o ;th e se co n d eh ap ter,c o rre lativ e th eo retic a l o v erv iew, eXP a tiate s
th e P rin c iP le an d steP s o f th e m a th em a tic m eth o d s u se d in th is P ap er. th e
th ird ch ap ter 15 th e c o n stru ctio n o f th e ev a lu atio n in d ex sy stem :th e fou rht
ch ap ter sets uP L o g it m o d e l in th e P rem ise o f a ssu m in g th at fin a n c in g
in fo rm atio n c an re fle et th e ere d it o f a c o m P an y, it P a ssed te st o f
m u lti一statistic in d ex a n d re a eh e d th e e ffe c t th at ex P e ete d rate ex c e e d s
8 5 % .:in o rd er to sh o w th e sc ient ifie an d ap P lic ab le eh ara c ter o f th e in d ex
u se d in th e fo reg o in g tex t,th e fifth eh ap ter te sts a ty P ic a l e o m P an y,a n d
c o m P a re s th e ch ar a eteristie an d ap P lie ab le en v iro n m en t b etw e en L o g istic
reg re ssio n m eth o d an d fu z zy ev a lu atin g m eth o d ;th e six th eh ap ter 15 th e
c o n e lu sio n an d a v ista .
TO th e n o n 一fin an c in g q u a lifieatio n i
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