我国煤炭价格变动趋势和其影响因素的实证研究.pdf

Subject ：：Empirical Study on Changing Tendency and Influencing ：： Factors of Coal Price in China Specialty ：：Management Science and Engineering ：： Name ：：Cao Chen-fu （（Signature ）） ：： （（ ）） Instructor ：：Zhang Jin-suo （（Signature ）） ：： （（ ）） ABSTRACT Coal is the safest, most economically and reliable energy resource in China. To make sure of the development of economy in China in future 50 years, the coal would take the most important part in the market for a long time. Coal price is an important factor in the coal market, the fluctuation of which not only affects the supply and demand balance in coal market, adjustment amplitude of industrial structure and the fluctuation of other energy resources market. Forecasting and mastering coal price fluctuation trend and its influential factors scientifically, especially recent changing tendency can make the coal enterprise after damage and avoid damage and also gain the initiative of market to win benefit for coal enterprise. In additional, it supplies scientific scrutiny for national macro-control policy to national energy market. On the basis of current research status at home and broad, this paper uses the method of econometric, takes the historic coal price as a sample series to analyze the changing tendency of coal price by establishing time series model and the relationship of the coal price and the influential factors by quantitative method. The main