一种基于攻击意愿分析的网络风险动态评估模型.pdfVIP

计算机研 究与发展 DOI：10．7544／issnl000—1239．20l5．201401Z7 JournalofComputerResearchandDevelopment 52(9)：2056—2068，2015 一 种基于攻击意愿分析的网络风险动态评估模型 马春光 汪诚弘 张东红 李迎涛 (哈尔滨工程大学计算机科学与技术学院 哈尔滨 150001) (machunguang@hrbeu．edu．cn) A DynamicNetworkRiskAssessmentM odelBasedonAttacker’SInclination MaChunguang，W angChenghong，ZhangDonghong，andLiYingtao (CollegeofComputerScienceandTechnology，HarbinEngineeringUniversity，Harbin150001) Abstract Thisarticle proposesa new dynamicnetwork risk analysismodelbased on attackers’ inclinationin orderto solvesomeproblemsofthetraditionalrisk analysismethodbasedon attack graph．Traditionalattack graph based on risk assessmentmethod relieshighly on the known vulnerabilitydatabaseandonly analyzestheatomicattacks’attributeregardlessoftherelationship between attack strategies and attackers’inclination． In our modelwe take both the existing vuJnerab tiesandunknownthreatensintoconsideration，thenevaluatetheattackerspressuresduring differentattack periodsSO thatwequantizetheattackers’inclination dynamicallyunderthenetwork environment．Then。weaddtheattackers’inclinationfactorsandatomicattackattributesintograph basedrisk assessmentmodel。and wecreateanew typeofattack graph using attackers’inclination factors．FinallywesetupadynamicriskassessmentmethodbyusingBayesianreasoningengine．W e convertour static attack to the dynam icBayesian attack graph，and usethe posteriorprobability computedbyBayesian reasoning enginetorealizethedynam icrisk assessment．W eestablish areal— worldexperimentenvironmentto simulateourdynamicrisk assessmentmodelbasedon attackers’ inclinationandvalidateitsfunction．Experimentalresultsdemonstratetherationalityofthismodel， andprovethatthissystem ismoresuitableforreal—timerisk assignmentundertheactualnetwork envjronment． Keywords Bayesianattackgraph；attackpressure；attacker’sinclination；potentialthreats；riskasses