生态学论文近50年黑龙江省气温与降水变化特征分析.doc

东北农业大学学士学位论文 　　　　　　　　　　学号：近50年黑龙江省气温与降水变化特征分析 学生姓名：孙千然 指导教师：孙彦坤 所在院系：资源与环境学院 所学专业：生态学 研究方向：农业气象 东 北 农 业 大 学 中国·哈尔滨 2014 年 6 月The Paper of Northeast Agricultural University Bachelor Degree Student ID:The Temperature and Precipitation in Heilongjiang Nearly 50 Years Variation Characteristics Analysis The name of the student:Sun Qian Ran Guidance teachers:Sun Yan Kun Department:College of resources and environment The specialty:Ecology Research direction:Agricultural Meteorology Northeast Agricultural University China·Harbin 2014.June 摘要 本文通过对黑龙江省78个站点1961—2010年的气象观测资料搜集整理，研究黑龙江省气温变化特征，应用Mann-Kendall突变性检测和线性趋势系数方法对全年、四季、年代际的气温、降水等主要农业气候资源的变化特征进行分析，结果表明，黑龙江省平均气温有明显升高趋势，升高速率为0.35℃/10a，稳定突变点在1988年。冬季是增温的主要贡献者，平均每10年增加0.52℃。全年和四季平均气温的年代际变化呈增加趋势，增温最大年代均发生在21世纪00s；黑龙江省各地区年降水量波动中呈现减少趋势，减少速率为2.76mm/10a，减少趋势不明显，但季节性明显，秋季是降水量减少最大贡献者。降水量分别在1983、1998年发生突变，两次突变前后变化趋势均明显不同。全年和四季降水量的年代际变化各不相同。 Abstract This article through to 78 sites in Heilongjiang province in 1961-2010of the meteorological observation data collection, studies the temperature characteristics of Heilongjiang province, application of Mann - Kendall method by testing and linear trend coefficient of the year, four seasons, the interdecadal the change of main agricultural climate resources such as air temperature, precipitation characteristics is analyzed, the results show that the average temperature in Heilongjiang province have obvious rising trend, higher rate of 0.35 ℃ / 10 a, stable mutation point in 1988. Winter is the main contributor to warming, on average every ten years increased by 0.52 ℃. And all the year round average temperature of the four seasons showed a trend of increase, the decadal variability of warming s largest had occurred in the 21st century 00 s; Heilongjiang province each region showed a trend of decrease in annual precipitation fluctuation, reduce the rate of 2.76 mm / 10 a, reduce the trend is