社会经济管理变化与财务知识综合评价(英文).pdf

A REGIONAL, MULTI-SECTORAL AND INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE IN THE UK PART I. METHODOLOGY 1 2 3 4 I. P. HOLMAN , M. D. A. ROUNSEVELL , S. SHACKLEY , P. A. HARRISON , R. J. NICHOLLS5 , P. M. BERRY4 and E. AUDSLEY6 1Institute of Water and Environment, Cranfield University, U.K. E-mail: i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk 2 ´ Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium 3 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, U.K. 4Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, U.K. 5School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, U.K. 6Silsoe Research Institute, U.K. Abstract. Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross- sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compro