梨火疫病菌在中国的潜在分布及入侵风险分析.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2007, 40(5):940-947 Scientia Agricultura Sinica 梨火疫病菌在中国的潜在分布及入侵风险分析 陈 晨，陈 娟，胡白石，白艺珍，姜英华，刘凤权 （南京农业大学农业部病虫检测与治理重点开放实验室，南京210095 ） 摘要：【目的】细菌性梨火疫病最早发生在北美洲，随着水果贸易等人为因素向世界其它地区传播。对当 地的生物多样性和经济带来了极其严重的威胁，亟需对其在中国的适生区进行预测。【方法】苹果开花期的温度 和降水量是影响梨火疫病菌适生分布的关键气候因子，本研究根据这一生物学特性及生态环境因子，应用地理 信息系统分析得出了梨火疫病在中国两个苹果优势产区的潜在定殖区域。【结果】用该方法对梨火疫病在欧洲的 发生情况的预测结果与其历史分布记录相符，使用相同的空间建模方法对梨火疫病在渤海湾和黄土高原两个苹 果优势栽培产区的潜在定殖区域进行风险评估，结果表明这两大苹果产区中优先扶持的县大多处于梨火疫病发 生的高风险范围。【结论】梨火疫病在中国的大部分地区适生，在有适宜寄主分布的地区，就可能严重发生。 关键词：生物入侵；梨火疫病菌；地理信息系统；潜在分布区；风险分析 Potential Distribution of Erwinia amylovora in China and Invasion Risk Assessment CHEN Chen, CHEN Juan, HU Bai-shi, BAI Yi-zhen, JIANG Ying-hua, LIU Feng-quan (Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Management of Plant Diseases and Insects, Ministry of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095) Abstract ：【Objective 】Fire blight (Erwinia amylovora), a bacteria disease originated in North America, was released into new locations by means of fruits trade. It represents a severe risk to the local biodiversity and economy. An urgent risk assessment is needed to predict its potential establishment area in China. 【Method 】On the basis of the knowledge of fire blight’s biophysical characteristics and environmental data, Geographic Information System (GIS) was applied to determine areas where fire blight can potentially invade in China where the pest has not been introduced. Temperature, together with the precipitation during the blossom period was considered to be two critical factors affecting fire blight’s suitable climatic zones. 【Results 】The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of the bacteria recorded in Europe where the occurrence of fi