基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法.pdfVIP

39 卷 8 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 39 No. 8 20 15 年8 月 Power System Technology Aug. 2015 文章编号：1000-3673 （20 15）08-2 148-06 中图分类号：TM 744 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470 4047 基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法 王铮，刘纯，冯双磊， 伟胜 （中国电力科学研究院，北京市 海淀区 100192 ） The Wind Farm Theoretical Power Calculation Method Research Based on Non-Parameter Regression WANG Zheng, LIU Chun, FENG Shuanglei, WANG Weisheng (China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China) ABSTRACT: The theoretical power calculation of wind farms 场测试，验证了方法的有效性和正确性，并与风电场发电能 can recover the abnormal wind power data, such as curtailed 力验证方法的计算结果进行比较，验证所提方法的先进性。 wind farm output, and plays an important role in wind power 关键词：风力发电；风电场理论功率；非参数回归；理论功 prediction model building, historical data recovery and 率计算；相关系数加权 electricity transaction settlement etc. In this paper, based on a DOI 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.08.013 lot of wind power data analysis, filter thresholds were set up according to the wind farm operation state and wind turbine 0 引言 types to delete the abnormal data, like curtailed output data. 风能是目前开发规模较大的一种可再生能源。 Non-parameter regression method was employed to fit the 我国风能资源丰富，截至 2014 年，我国风电累计 power curve of wind turbines. Fault and missing power data 并网装机容量达到96.37 GW，占全部发电装机容量 was modified and added using real wind speed data and correlation coefficient weights. The wind farm theoretical 的7%[1-2] 。到 2020 年，我国风电商业运行容量预 power calculation method based on Non-parameter regression 计将达到 200~250 GW[3] 。因此，开展风力发电相 w