Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental.pptVIP

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records N. Gedney, P. M. Cox, R. A. Betts, O. Boucher, C. Huntingford P. A. Stott Possible reasons for river runoff increase climate change and variability Deforestation (land cover change) solar dimming (aerosol effect) direct atmospheric CO2 effects on plant transpiration On annual and longer timescales, runoff (R) = precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (ET) Evapotranspiration is a function of energy and water availability, near-surface atmospheric conditions and the control of transpiration by plants. Climate change and variability modify precipitation patterns and near-surface meteorology. Increased aerosol concentration reduces surface solar radiation, leading to reductions in open-pan evaporation. Landcover changes modify the depth of the soil from which plants can extract water and the available energy by changing the land-surface albedo. Stomatal apertures on plant leaves are observed to close partially under increased CO2, leading to suppression of transpiration Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES), using a monthly observational data set of the twentieth-century climate. Five simulations of twentieth-century surface hydrology: All factors vary Fixed climate Fixed aerosol Fixed atmospheric CO2 Fixed land use Use a standard optimal fingerprinting technique to see which factors are likely to be driving the long-term changes in continental runoff by comparing the modelled and observed annual anomalies relative to the long-term mean Conclusion Raised CO2 levels are already having a direct influence on the water balance at the land surface. As the direct CO2 effect reduces surface energy loss due to evaporation, it is likely to add to surface warming as well as increasing freshwater availability. The existence of a direct CO2 signal in river runoff records also opens up the intriguing possibility of using long-term river records to monitor CO2 effects on the land carbon sink