国际原油价格波对我国工业制成品出口的影响.pdf

摘 要 随着我国对外贸易的不断发展，制成品出口贸易已经成为了我国对外贸易体系 中相当重要的组成部分，对推动中国经济的发展起着举足轻重的作用。近年来国际 原油价格也一直处于大幅度波动的局面，我国制成品的生产和出口都需要消耗大量 的原油，而原油的消耗很大部分是依赖于进口，所以国际原油价格的稳定直接关系 到我国制成品贸易的顺利发展。 本文从国际原油价格波动的原因和现状及制成品出口的现状入手，分析了原油 价格波动的总体趋势及其影响因素，同时对我国制成品出口的现状及出口商品结构 等问题做了详细分析, 对两者之间的关系也做了深入的讨论。本文还通过实证的方 法对国际原油价格与制成品的出口做了量化研究。并找出原油价格波动对我国制成 品出口影响的因素，以及我国制成品出口中还存在的一些问题，通过这些内容的系 统化的分析，得出中国制成品出口中存在的一些问题和问题的根源。最后针对得出 的实证结论和其他主要问题，提出包括加快技术创新步伐，全面提升制造业的国际 竞争力；全方位、建设性地参与各项活动，为工业品出口营造有利的外部环境；加 快产业结构调整，建立节约型产业结构等方面的策略。 关键词 原油价格；制成品出口；Granger 检验 I Abstract With the development of China’s foreign trade, especially in the industrial products trade, it already plays a very important role in our national foreign trade system and national economic development. In resent years, the International crude oil prices are very unstable. The production and export of industrial product need to cost a lot of crude oil, and the large amount of the cost is rely on import from abroad. So a stable supply price of crude oil directly affects our national economic development and industrial products trade. This paper begins at the present fluctuation of international oil price and China’s industrial export, it analyses the circumstance and trend of the fluctuating Crude oil price and its reason in recent years. We also have a detail description of the present China’s industrial export and export commodity structure. In this study, I creatively use Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co-integrated relationships between the fluctuating oil price and the growth rate of export of china’s industrial products, and then test the Granger causality relationships between the two elements. The result of our econometric analysis indicates that the rising of international oil price slow