资本性投资中当决策和延迟决策的比较.pdfVIP

资本性投资中当前决策和延迟决策的比较 贾玉良 2005年4月 摘 要 企业资本性投资对于一个企业的生存和发展至关重要 以传统 方法 为代表的当前决策在项目决策时忽视了投资的不可逆性 可延迟性等特性 本 文引入了实物期权理论,介绍了利用实物期权方法在长期资本投资中进行延迟决 策的应用,并通过案例进行对比研究 给出了二者在实际投资决策运用中的比较 分析 我们认为 对于比较紧急 要求当机立断的项目 在信息比较明确健全 的情况下 当前决策由于其简单明了 易于操作 决策迅速等特点因而比较适 用 对于不确定因素比较多 模糊性比较强的项目 由于延迟决策克服了传统 决策法的种种局限 能够通过实物期权的应用 较为准确的评估项目的价值 从而使得决策更为科学 中图分类号 F830 主题词 资本性投资 法 期权定价理论 实物期权 I Current Decisions and Deferred Decisions in Capital Investment - A Comparative Study Jia Yuliang April, 2005 Abstract Capital investment is essential for the survival of any enterprise. The current decision approach represented by the NPV method ignores the irreversibility and deferability in project decisions. This paper introduces the theory of physical option and its applications in the deferred decisions in long term capital investments, and offers a comparative study in actual scenario of long term investments. We believe that for urgent projects that require quick decisions and on the back of relatively clear and complete information, the current decision approach should apply due to its obvious advantages of being straightforward, easy to practice and quick in decision- making. For project involving many uncertainties or vagueness, deferred decision proves to be a more scientific approach in decision making as it overcomes many weaknesses in traditional decision making approaches, and is able to accurately determine th